Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure
A number of members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
