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Initially, Trump appeared to take a strong stance concerning Ukraine. After delivering threats of "serious consequences" in August if Russia's president continued obstructing truce negotiations, Trump eventually enacted substantial sanctions on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This action substantially hindered Putin's capacity to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

However, via his newly presented comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, reportedly drafted by US and Russian representatives without Ukraine's or EU input, he has seemingly reverted to his Russia-friendly position.

Rewarding Invasion

Trump's plan would essentially favor Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving the country's political freedom in peril. Despite bold proclamations that "The nation's sovereignty will be affirmed", significant aspects of the plan in reality undermine that essential sovereignty. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his corporate past, the former president persists to treat the war as a mere border issue, as if ceding Russia a portion of Ukraine's territory will please the ruler. But, Russia's military campaign is not only about controlling a destroyed region of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to weaken it so it ceases to acts as an enticing example for the Russia's population of the accountable governance that his increasing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Border Giveaways

While freezing in position the presently divided oblasts of these areas, Trump's initiative would require Ukraine to surrender the whole Donetsk province. Aside from benefiting Russia with area that its troops have been unable to capture in over a lengthy period of conflict, this giveaway would make Ukrainian defenses dangerously undermined.

This region is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that constitute a essential impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, giving Russian forces a clear way to Kyiv if he eventually decide to restart the war.

Armed Forces Limitations

Furthermore, in a action that would make future fighting easier for Russia, the plan would force the nation to reduce the scale of its troops from their current approximately 800,000 troops to a cap of this lower number. Notably, Trump's plan places no such limits on Russian forces.

Apparently as a gesture to Russia's attempts to depict Ukraine's democratically elected administration as Nazis, the proposal asserts: "Any radical doctrine and activities must be opposed and forbidden." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a truce. Meanwhile, the proposal places no requirement that the Russian leader jeopardize his dictatorship by allowing votes in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

Admittedly, the proposal has Russia pledge not to "attack bordering nations" and to "incorporate in legislation its policy of peaceful relations towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However given that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent agreements in the previous instances – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to honor the nation's territorial integrity in return for giving up its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a halt in fighting and a return of seized areas in the Donbas to the government – for what reason should we have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western protection assurances. While the initiative promises a "immediate unified defense action" in case the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the details include unclear to concerning. The plan would not only deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit Nato members from positioning troops on Ukrainian territory, effectively blocking the peacekeeping contingent, likely led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to prevent Putin from replenishing his diminished troops, rearming, and reinvading.

World Reaction

Another side agreement reportedly would provide the nation with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any later "significant, intentional, and continuous military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. Yet unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary deterrent against renewed hostilities – the success of the side agreement would depend on the commitment of Western powers, including the US administration, to react through arms to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not