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Within the widespread uncertainty surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and capture its head of state – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the headless administration are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.